The United Nations has issued a fresh El Nino warning, cautioning that the climate pattern could significantly increase global temperatures and heighten the risk of extreme weather events across multiple regions in the coming months. According to the World Meteorological Organization, a moderate to potentially strong El Nino is developing in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to influence weather conditions through at least November 2026.
The warning comes as scientists continue to monitor rapidly warming ocean temperatures and growing signs that El Nino conditions are strengthening. The United Nations and climate experts say the developing weather pattern could trigger widespread heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, food security concerns, and additional pressure on already vulnerable communities.
The latest El Nino warning has renewed concerns about the interaction between natural climate cycles and long-term global warming trends. While El Nino itself is a naturally occurring phenomenon, experts stress that its impacts can become more severe in an increasingly warmer world.
World Meteorological Organization forecasts above-average temperatures
The World Meteorological Organization said warmer-than-normal ocean waters are driving the development of El Nino and increasing the likelihood of above-average temperatures in many parts of the world between June and August.
El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels. The climate pattern typically lasts between nine and twelve months and can significantly alter weather systems across continents.
According to the agency, observations in the Equatorial Pacific indicate a rapid increase in sea surface temperatures since late April. Scientists have also detected unusually warm subsurface ocean temperatures exceeding six degrees Celsius above average in some areas, creating a substantial reservoir of heat capable of reinforcing surface warming.
These developments have strengthened expectations that El Nino 2026 could become a major climate driver during the second half of the year, although uncertainty remains regarding its eventual strength.
Extreme heat risk among the biggest concerns
Climate experts say the most immediate concern linked to the developing El Nino warning is the growing extreme heat risk facing populations around the world.
World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that countries should prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event capable of worsening drought conditions, increasing heavy rainfall episodes, and amplifying heatwaves over both land and oceans.
According to the agency, extreme heat already ranks among the deadliest climate hazards globally. A stronger El Nino could increase cases of heat-related illnesses, place additional stress on healthcare systems, and contribute to wider environmental and economic challenges.
Experts also warn that prolonged heat can affect labor productivity, increase electricity demand, strain infrastructure, and elevate wildfire risks in vulnerable regions. Rising temperatures may further contribute to water shortages and agricultural losses, particularly in areas already experiencing drought conditions.
Regions likely to experience significant impacts
The World Meteorological Organization noted that El Nino can influence weather patterns differently across regions.
Historically, El Nino has been associated with increased rainfall across parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and sections of Central Asia. In contrast, regions including Australia, Indonesia, Central America, and parts of southern Asia often experience below-average rainfall and drought conditions.
The climate pattern can also contribute to increased hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, creating additional risks for coastal communities and infrastructure.
Several national weather agencies have already warned that El Nino 2026 could become the strongest event in nearly a decade. Some forecasts suggest hotter and drier conditions across large parts of Asia during the second half of the year, potentially affecting crop production and food supplies.
However, the World Meteorological Organization stressed that not all forecasting models currently point toward a strong event, highlighting the importance of continued monitoring.
Climate change impacts could amplify El Nino effects
Scientists continue to study the relationship between El Nino and climate change impacts. According to the World Meteorological Organization, there is currently no evidence that climate change directly increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events.
However, experts agree that a warmer planet can magnify the consequences associated with the climate pattern. This means that heatwaves may become hotter, heavy rainfall events may become more intense, and drought conditions may become more damaging when El Nino occurs against a backdrop of rising global temperatures.
The previous El Nino episode during 2023 and 2024 contributed to record-breaking global temperatures and played a role in making 2024 the hottest year ever recorded. Climate scientists warn that a new El Nino event could once again push temperatures higher and intensify existing climate-related challenges.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described the emerging weather pattern as an urgent climate warning. He argued that El Nino conditions could add further pressure to an already warming world and reiterated calls for accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
Preparedness seen as key to reducing risks
The latest El Nino warning underscores the importance of preparedness and early action. Meteorologists, disaster management agencies, and governments are being encouraged to strengthen monitoring systems and prepare for a range of potential weather extremes.
Experts believe proactive planning can reduce the impact of extreme heat risk, droughts, floods, and food supply disruptions. Improved forecasting, public awareness campaigns, water conservation measures, and climate-resilient infrastructure are among the strategies often recommended to reduce vulnerability.
As global temperatures continue to rise and weather patterns become increasingly unpredictable, the developing El Nino 2026 event is likely to remain a major focus for governments, scientists, and communities worldwide. While uncertainty remains regarding its ultimate strength, the World Meteorological Organization’s forecast highlights the need for vigilance as the world prepares for another potentially challenging climate cycle.