A possible rebellion within the Shiv Sena (UBT) could significantly reshape Maharashtra’s political landscape, not only weakening former Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray but also altering the balance of power between Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde within the ruling Mahayuti alliance.
According to political developments, six of the nine Lok Sabha MPs belonging to the Shiv Sena (UBT) are reportedly considering joining the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. If the switch materialises, it would mark another major setback for Thackeray after the historic 2022 rebellion that split the Shiv Sena and led to the collapse of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government.
More importantly, the move could strengthen Shinde’s position within both Maharashtra politics and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), creating fresh challenges for the BJP-led government despite the alliance remaining in power.
A second major blow for Uddhav Thackeray
The reported defection would represent the second major split engineered by leaders now aligned with Eknath Shinde.
The first came in 2022 when Shinde, then a senior Shiv Sena leader, led a rebellion that divided the party, resulting in the fall of the Uddhav Thackeray government and eventually leading to the recognition of Shinde’s faction as the official Shiv Sena.
If six more MPs leave the Shiv Sena (UBT), Uddhav Thackeray’s parliamentary strength would shrink considerably, further weakening the opposition’s presence in the Lok Sabha while consolidating Shinde’s position as the dominant Sena leader within the NDA.
How the numbers could change
The proposed defections would significantly improve the parliamentary strength of the Shinde-led Shiv Sena.
At present, the BJP has nine Lok Sabha MPs from Maharashtra, while the Shinde Sena has seven. Shiv Sena (UBT) also holds nine seats.
If six Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs cross over, the Shinde faction’s strength would increase to 13 MPs, making it one of the largest NDA partners from Maharashtra and surpassing the BJP’s representation from the state in the Lok Sabha.
The enhanced numbers could give Shinde greater leverage in parliamentary negotiations, cabinet discussions and alliance decision-making at both the state and national levels.
BJP remains dominant in the Maharashtra Assembly
While the parliamentary arithmetic may shift, the situation in the Maharashtra Assembly remains firmly in the BJP’s favour.
The BJP currently holds 132 MLAs in the 288-member Assembly, making it the largest party in the ruling Mahayuti alliance. In comparison, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena has 57 MLAs.
Following the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections, Devendra Fadnavis replaced Eknath Shinde as Chief Minister after the BJP emerged as the dominant force within the alliance. Shinde subsequently accepted the role of Deputy Chief Minister despite reports suggesting he was dissatisfied with the arrangement.
Because of the BJP’s overwhelming legislative strength, the party has largely dictated the government’s agenda, with Fadnavis occupying the central position in state administration.
Parliament presents a different political picture
Unlike the Assembly, the Lok Sabha presents a much more balanced contest among Maharashtra’s alliance partners.
If Shinde’s faction reaches 13 MPs following the reported defections, it would become a stronger parliamentary force than the BJP from Maharashtra, potentially giving Shinde greater influence in discussions related to cabinet representation, parliamentary strategy and future seat-sharing negotiations.
Political observers believe such a development could gradually alter the internal dynamics of the Mahayuti alliance even if it does not immediately threaten the stability of the state government.
What it means for Mahayuti
The Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party faction led by Ajit Pawar, has remained united since returning to power.
However, political alliances often depend on relative strength among partners.
A significantly stronger parliamentary presence for Shinde could lead to greater bargaining power when key political decisions are made, including future election strategies, ministerial allocations and policy priorities.
For the BJP, the challenge would be managing alliance expectations while maintaining its leadership role in Maharashtra.