The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the United States-Iran peace agreement is expected to mark a major turning point for global energy markets. However, shipping experts and maritime industry executives warn that restoring normal vessel traffic through the world’s most important oil transit corridor will take weeks rather than days.
Although oil prices today declined after the announcement that the United States and Iran had reached an agreement to end months of conflict, analysts say the physical movement of crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and commercial cargo cannot resume immediately. Instead, the Strait of Hormuz reopening is expected to follow a carefully managed and phased process as authorities work to address security concerns and clear a growing backlog of vessels.
Oil prices react to the US-Iran peace agreement
Global crude oil prices fell below the $80 per barrel mark after investors welcomed news that US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict.
The agreement includes provisions allowing the Strait of Hormuz to fully reopen without transit tolls imposed by Iran for at least 60 days. Financial markets interpreted the development as a positive signal for global oil supply, easing fears of prolonged disruptions that had pushed energy prices higher during nearly four months of regional conflict.
Despite the market optimism, industry observers caution that lower oil prices may not be sustained unless physical exports recover at a similar pace.
Strait of Hormuz shipping recovery will be gradual
Shipping specialists say reopening one of the world’s busiest maritime chokepoints presents enormous logistical challenges.
According to Adam Sharpe, Vice President of Editorial at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, the most likely outcome is a phased restart rather than an immediate return to normal operations.
Multiple operational questions remain unresolved, including whether commercial vessels will require prior approval before entering the waterway, whether Iran will introduce service fees, how naval escorts will be coordinated, and whether additional inspections or mine-clearance operations will be required before unrestricted navigation resumes.
These uncertainties are expected to slow the pace of recovery even after the political agreement has been finalized.
No precedent for restarting Strait of Hormuz traffic
Industry experts note there is little historical precedent for reopening the Strait of Hormuz after a disruption of this magnitude.
Before the conflict, approximately 650 to 770 cargo vessels passed through the strategic waterway every week, equivalent to roughly 90 to 110 vessel movements each day in both directions.
Restoring those traffic levels will require coordinated efforts involving shipping companies, Gulf port authorities, insurance providers, naval forces and energy exporters.
Experts believe authorities will initially prioritize oil tankers and LNG carriers because of their importance to global energy markets before allowing broader commercial shipping volumes to increase.
Shipping backlog remains a major challenge
One of the biggest obstacles facing the Strait of Hormuz reopening is the large number of vessels currently waiting to resume operations.
Many ships either remained anchored offshore or delayed entering the Gulf during the conflict due to heightened security risks. As a result, a significant queue has developed across regional ports and offshore waiting areas.
Economic intelligence firm QuantCube Technology reports that shipping data has not yet shown a meaningful increase in oil export departures from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Iraq despite the peace announcement.
In Saudi Arabia’s Dammam region, home to the strategically important Ras Tanura oil export terminal, several vessels have already completed loading operations but continue waiting offshore until authorities confirm safe navigation conditions.
Security concerns continue to influence shipping decisions
Even with the ceasefire agreement in place, maritime operators remain cautious.
Shipping companies continue monitoring potential security risks, including unexploded naval mines, inspection procedures, navigation protocols and insurance requirements before sending additional vessels through the Strait.
Insurers are also expected to evaluate regional risks before adjusting war-risk premiums, a factor that could continue increasing transportation costs even after commercial traffic resumes.
These operational issues are likely to determine how quickly shipping companies restore normal schedules.
