The administration of United States President Donald Trump has launched a sweeping Trump tariff probe into 16 major trading partners including India, China and Bangladesh, reopening a global trade battle that could reshape international commerce in the coming months. The investigation relies on Section 301 tariffs, a legal mechanism under the Trade Act of 1974 that allows the United States government to retaliate against trading partners accused of unfair economic practices.

Officials in Washington indicated that the Trump tariff probe could result in new tariffs by mid-2026 if the investigation confirms that targeted economies are contributing to the growing US trade deficit through excessive production capacity or persistent trade surpluses. The move comes after the United States Supreme Court struck down earlier global tariffs introduced under emergency powers, prompting the administration to explore alternative trade enforcement tools.

Section 301 tariffs return as Washington targets trade imbalances

According to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, led by Jamieson Greer, the Section 301 tariffs investigation focuses on economies believed to have structural excess manufacturing capacity. Officials suggested that such production advantages can distort global markets and deepen the US trade deficit, particularly in sectors like electronics, industrial manufacturing and consumer goods.

Countries under the Trump tariff probe include the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan, among others. Notably, Canada—one of the United States’ largest trading partners—was not included in the probe.

Trade data from the United States Census Bureau shows that Washington continues to record major deficits with several countries under scrutiny. The trade gap with China alone climbed close to $300 billion in 2025, reinforcing concerns in Washington about the scale of the US trade deficit. India also maintains a sizeable goods trade surplus with the United States, though it remains smaller compared with some Asian manufacturing powers.

Experts warn Trump tariff probe could trigger new trade tensions

Trade analysts say the renewed reliance on Section 301 tariffs signals a continuation of the protectionist approach that defined Trump’s earlier trade policies. Economists studying global trade policy have indicated that such investigations often serve as a negotiating tool rather than an immediate tariff decision.

Several trade policy experts from institutions such as the Peterson Institute for International Economics have previously argued that Section 301 tariffs investigations can push trading partners to renegotiate market access rules or reduce subsidies that distort global production. Analysts suggest that the current Trump tariff probe may also be designed to pressure trading partners into bilateral negotiations aimed at shrinking the US trade deficit.

Experts also note that the investigation could escalate tensions with China, which remains at the centre of American trade concerns. Beijing has repeatedly denied accusations that its industrial policies create unfair advantages in global manufacturing.

Forced labour investigation expands trade enforcement push

Alongside the Trump tariff probe, the United States government has launched another investigation targeting imports produced with forced labour across more than 60 countries. This effort builds on existing restrictions imposed under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, signed by former President Joe Biden.

American officials have maintained that stronger enforcement measures are necessary to prevent goods produced under coercive labour conditions from entering global supply chains. Chinese authorities, however, continue to reject allegations that labour camps exist in the Xinjiang region.

Timeline for tariffs as Trump targets US trade deficit

The United States Trade Representative’s office plans to collect public comments on the Section 301 tariffs investigation until mid-April before holding hearings in early May. Officials expect preliminary conclusions before temporary tariffs imposed earlier this year expire in July.

Trade specialists believe the outcome of the Trump tariff probe will depend heavily on negotiations between Washington and the targeted economies. If new tariffs are imposed, the move could reignite global trade tensions and reshape strategies used by multinational manufacturers.

For now, the investigation highlights the administration’s determination to address the US trade deficit while reinforcing domestic manufacturing and economic competitiveness.